A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
